Sunday, September 16th, 2012
Chase Preview 2012
Nascar Chase Preview
As the Chase for the Sprint Cup closely nears (tomorrow at Chicagoland Speedway), NASCAR fans desperately await to see how this season of a new playoff system will play out. For those of you who are not familiar with this system, the way that drivers got into the Chase this year was that the Top 10 in points got in automatically. The rest though had to base their chances off the number of wins that they achieved over the whole ‘regular season’. This made for an extremely close finish for the 12th and final spot as both Kyle Busch and Jeff Gordon had 1 win going into the final race and was separated by only 13 points. Gordon’s car was barely handling all throughout the first half of the race and was fell back to 25th. That was when an hour long rain delay prompted discussion about proper adjustments to get him back towards the front A gutsy call on Gordon’s part to get fresh tires late in the race paid off as he finished 2nd with a late charge through the field while Busch was left coasting along to a 16th place finish a whole lap down.
So as NASCAR’s playoff’s closely nears, here is my analysis of the 12 drivers involved in their standings order
1. Denny Hamlin (4 wins, 11 Top 5’s 13 Top 10’s) Hamlin is having by far his best season of his career as he has won two key races late in the regular season that has boosted his momentum into the Chase. Tony Stewart had the same kind of momentum last year, and you saw his name on the Champions trophy at the end of November.
Why he can win: Look for Denny to really do well on the shorter ovals such as Dover and Phoenix. His relies on consistent Top 5 finishes and winning at “his tracks”. His calm demeanor on the track keeps him well out of harms way which is key when every race matters.
Why he will not win: Hamlin has struggled in the past in the Chase and has completely fallen off contention many times. This may be a factor of luck or a stress factor for racing well when it really matters.
2. Jimmie Johnson: (3 wins, 12 Top 5’s, 17 Top 10’s) Even if you know absolutely nothing about the sport of auto racing, Jimmie Johnson is a household name. The way him and his crew dominate the circuit is undeniably incredible. Watching him make all the right calls on root to 5 straight championship was nothing short of a dynasty.
Why he can win: He is the eptimome of consistency. The man knows how to keep his car clean to the finish and find a way to salvage a mediocre car into a 8th or 9th place finish. So when he does have that perfect set-up…watch out.
Why he will not win: That being said, Johnson has had his fair share of unluckiness this season. He has DNF’d 5 times this year and had engine failure’s 3 of those times.
3. Tony Stewart: (3 wins, 10 Top 5’s, 12 Top 10’s) The defending champion of the Sprint Cup. He is no doubt a favorite to repeat this year. He has an aggressive strategy and has a knack for doing well when it matters.
Why he will win: The defending champion always has an advantage going into the next Chase and we will see him up front a lot. He plays off his own momentum very well, so once he gets on a roll with a string of stellar performances, watch out.
Why he will not win: Plain and simple, there is just too much competition in his way for him to repeat this year.
4. Brad Keslowski: (3 wins, 10 Top 5’s 15 Top 10’s) A breakout year for the Wisconsin man, who many thought was going to be struggling to find a ride at Penske after this season.
Why he will win: In my opinion, he is just the underdog. He has a lot of support in the garage and he will try to use that to his advantage. Being the new guy out there might be a little tough at first; but he can use this to make more aggressive calls to go for the win.
Why he will not win: He just does not stack up well against these other drivers. He is the only driver in his first ever Chase.. He needs a couple of more years of experience in these high-pressure situations before he can fully conquer the 10 race system.
5. Greg Biffle: (2 wins, 10 Top 5’s, 15 Top 10’s) A solid season for the Biff. He really did step it up on the Mile and half and 2 mile tracks. Which the Chase has 4 of them.
Why he will win: Biffle’s performance in the regular season under the old system of points would have put him first in points. Enough said.
Why he will not win: Biffle is a Chase Veteran, but in this wide-open field this year, it will be very tough for him to make enough of a run to land up on top.
6. Clint Bowyer: (2 Wins, 6 Top 5’s, 15 Top 10’s) Bowyer made a bold move with fuel strategy stretching his car 123 laps to take the win at Richmond. His year so far has surprised even himself with the amount of success he has had.
Why he will win: The guy has overcome much adversity this season to be the top representative of the relatively small team, Michael Waltrip Racing. Even in the last race he overcame spinning out and won at Richmond. His quote going into the next 10 races: “better watch out!”
Why he will not win: His can-do attitude and newly found swagger has him in a place where he’s never been before: Title contention. He has to be willing to be more aggressive then he’s been in the past to help his team make the full turn around.
7. Dale Earnhardt Jr. (1 win, 10 Top 5’s, 17 Top 10’s): By far the favorite driver in NASCAR still; Junior possesses the amount of fan support that can overpower a TV telecast when he takes the lead. Will it be enough though to win him his first title?
Why he will win: He has had, in almost all of the races this year, been running up front or up near the front. His car just seems to be running well no matter what.
Why he will not win: Even though he has the backing of all of NASCAR and all of his loyal fans, and been called a true contender all year. Junior still has to once for all prove that he is ready to step up to the next level and win a championship like his dad.
8. Matt Kenseth: (1 win, 10 Top 5’s, 16 10 Top 10’s): It seems that every single year, Matt Kenseth finds his way to the Top 10 in points and settles in there for the rest of the season.
Why he will win: Pure and utter consistency on the track put him in this position. It might just carry him into Victory Circle in Homestead in November.
Why he will not win: Distractions: He announced only a couple of weeks ago that this will be his last year at Roush Fenway racing as he is moving to Joe Gibbs Racing and Toyotas. Even though he believes it will not inhibit his performance, there is a possibility that it might.
9. Kevin Harvick: (0 Wins, 4 Top 5’s, 11 Top 10’s): To be honest I had no idea this guy even made the Chase. This guy has not been making much noise going in and might continue so.
Why he will win: Last year, Tony Stewart did the impossible, by going completely under the radar in the regular season. He did not win a single race, but yet he won a staggering 5 races and won the Championship to set the stage for the most dramatic end to the season ever; so just because Harvick has flown under the radar, should not mean you should count him out, by any means.
Why he will not win: Following his year of 4 victories last season, Harvick has struggled late in races on finishing. With Richard Childress racing putting immense pressure on Harvick to do well this season after Clint Bowyer left for MWR, Harvick has to prove that 2012 is his year.
10. Martin Truex Jr: (0 wins, 6 Top 5’s, 14 Top 10’s) The other contender from Michael Waltrip Racing, Truex Jr. has done more than impress people by taking a struggling team and getting them to where they are now, Championship contention.
Why he will win: Along with Keslowski, I think Truex Jr. is really the underdog pick. After signing an extension to Michael Waltrip Racing earlier in the month, he has an extra incentive to make this season a special one.
Why he will not win: Having the longest streak going into the Chase of 194 races, Truex has got to get into Victory Lane if he were to have any chance of making a run for the Championship
11. Kasey Kahne: (2 Wins, 7 Top 5’s, 13 Top 10’s) He along with his 3 teammates from Hendrick Motorsports, the “Fantastic Four” have all made the postseason with a chance to win. Looked at as the new kid of the team , being in his first year on the team, Kahne has a lot to prove this Chase.
Why he will win: If he is to do well in the Chase, he has the right people around him. 9 Championships compliment his 2 teammates Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson. It can be noted that his last three wins also have come on Chase tracks
Why he will not win: His early season struggles have put him in a hole going in and his overall inconsistency might haunt him later on.
12. Jeff Gordon: (1 Win, 7 Top 5’s, 12 Top 10’s) A man with nothing but bad luck throughout the beginning to middle of the season found his way to crawl all the way back into the Chase.
Why he will win: The simple reason, he’s Jeff Gordon. He’s won 4 championships and knows what it takes to win. He is on such a roll going into the Chase that it does not seem improbable for him to win a couple of the races in the Chase.
Why he will not win: Even though he is tied with 4 drivers with 12 points back, he will have nothing but an uphill battle going in. As he will not only depend on how he finishes, but how others finish.
By Jimmy Luehrs